Euro 2012: Poland-Russia

As we all know by now the game ended in a 1-1 draw.  It was also the site of massive protests.

Watching the game atop the metro station. 

The riot police lining up in case of trouble.

At the metro entrance of the strefa kibica, trouble has started and security is starting to crack down.

Inside the strefa kibica most everyone is calm and watching the game.

The police clear the area outside the entrance.

Burning the Russian flag. 

No need for porta-potties!  The wall serves just well enough.

The line clearing the street. 

The palace all lit up.

Cheering from atop the metro.

This guy don't give a fuck.  He's picking up crushed cans for cash.

Ale Jerozolimskie full of people.

The Chechens

As apt as I am in trying to keep up with local (i.e. Polish) news, I ran across some headlines that Chechen exiles would be hosting a conference right outside of Warsaw.

For those of you who don't remember or don't care, Chechnya is a republic in the Northern Caucuses.  It is internationally recognized as sovereign Russian territory, but has been locked in struggle against Russia for independence.  The First Chechen War, fought between 1994 and 1996, ended with nominal Chechen independence; although, it wasn't recognized internationally.  Chechnya, ravaged by war and strife, began a downward spiral into tribal warfare and banditry that made a hard life even more miserable.  Everything that was not destroyed in the first war was leveled in the second.  The re-invaded Chechnya became the shithole that nobody knew or cared about.  Imagine a place a little bit bigger than Connecticut bearing the brunt of a full Russian invasion.  Since then, things have cooled down slightly, but there is still a smoldering violence, and a bitterly oppressive government that is run more like a mafia than an actual mandate from the masses.  This is all boiled down for easy digestion; there's more to the story, but this is the gist of it.
My interest in Chechnya was piqued when I read Arkady Babchenko's One Soldier's War.  It's a harrowing account of Babchenko's two tours of duty (one in the first war as a conscript, one in the second as a professional soldier) in Chechnya.  Seeing the war through a soldier of the Russian Federation's eyes was a bit moving and a bit disturbing.  His recounts of his suffering at the hands of his own comrades are stomach-churning.  Babchenko later went on to become a journalist and now writes for the independent Novaya Gazeta, a newspaper funded in part by Mikhail Gorbachev.
Babchenko's fellow journalist, Anna Politkovskaya, wrote several books on Chechnya, one of which I read, A Small Corner of Hell: Dispatches From Chechnya.  One Small Corner of Hell really exposed the horrors inflicted upon Chechnya and the Chechen people.  It condemned the Chechen resistance as not looking out for the actual needs of the people, but saved the most condemnation for the Russian military and government for their heinous and willful crimes.  Politkovskaya was a victim of death threats and intimidation, which eventually led to her assassination (as of yet, no one has been convicted.)  Her familiarity with the Chechens and their cause led her to be a negotiator in the Moscow Theater Siege, which didn't end well.  One of her memorable quotes is an angry young terrorist saying, "You live quite well here!  We live in the forest.  But you'll see!"
So, when thinking of a ravaged place seeded with unexploded ordinance, corrupt officials, bandits, environmental harm, and a brewing pot for jihad, think of Chechnya.  It's the place you're not going to go to vacation even if it's all-expenses-paid.  Better spots include: Pakistan's Swat Valley, Pripyat, Monterrey (Mexico), Rio's City of God, and just about anywhere else.

Anyway, the Polish police arrested Akhmed Zakayev in Warsaw the other day.  Zakayev is wanted on an international arrest warrant.  The Poles are letting the courts decide what to do with him for now, i.e. send him to Russia (which Russia is demanding), or let him go.  It's doubtful that he would meet his doom in Russia, but he most likely would be sent to prison for the rest of his life.  Poland did extradite the alleged Israeli spy to Germany to face charges, but I'm not too sure how this one is going to play out.
One interesting thing, so I've heard, is that Russia alleges that Polish GROM MANPADS (Man-Portable Anti-Air Defense Systems) were found in Chechnya.  Poland denies this and claims Russia was just being a dick and placed them there themselves, which I wouldn't put past Russia.

Go Buy Some Flour

Why you should stock up on flour next time you go shopping.

We've all heard about the rampaging forest fires in Russia this summer.  They blanketed Moscow in dense, poisonous fog (doubling the death rate) and burned millions of acres.  What they also did was burn one third of Russia's wheat crop.  With Russia the fourth-largest producer of wheat in the world, you can bet that come harvest time, the prices are going to rise.  With the rise of wheat prices, naturally comes the rise in flour prices.  Prices are pretty low right now, so you ought to stock up.

Recently, every time I've gone out shopping I have bought a kilo or two of flour (usually tortowa typ 450 (cake flour, at 1.14zl), but luksusowa typ 550 is cheaper (1.03zl).  I now have around seven kilos flour, which will probably last me a month or two.  Due to my baking habits, I generally run through flour faster than most.  But, taking no chances, in order to preserve the extra flour and increase its longevity, I stash a couple of kilos in the freezer (to ward of creepy crawlies and bugs.)

Flour prices will not be the ones to rise; prices for wheat-based products (bread, prepared foods, confections, etc.) will probably rise as well.  As we all know, Poles are pretty passionate about their bread, so they might grumble if the prices rise a little too much.  The problem is that they can't be stored as long as flour can.  The rise in wheat will ripple through the agricultural sector, creating increases of varying sizes in places you might not expect.  It's not unlike an increase in oil prices.  When oil rises, it's not just gasoline and home heating prices that rise, but also things like: paving the roads (asphalt is made of petroleum), flight and bus tickets, food prices (cost of transportation), cosmetics, etc.
Of course, this is all speculation.  I hesitate to actually scream from the rooftops that flour may rise a couple grosze, or expect that anyone would care much.  A strengthening zloty would make up much of the difference (while a weakening zloty would make it worse.)  There might be bumper crops, not only in Poland, but also in Ukraine, the US, China, France, and Turkey.  Together, they might make up the difference and cancel it all out.  But, it doesn't hurt to be prepared.  It's more likely that the prices will rise rather than drop, so shell out a few extra zloty not to grab a couple extra kilos of flour.  It keeps a long time (if stored properly) and we're heading in to cooler weather, which will make storage all the more easier.

I make a mean sourdough out of this stuff.

The Problem With Russia

It's no secret that not a lot of people like the Russians.  The Poles despise them, the rest of Europe doesn't trust them, and the North Americans view them with a mixture of distrust and misunderstanding.  Places like India and Armenia have warm relations with Russia (party because Armenia is surrounded by enemies and India needs an arms supplier that is not an ally of either Pakistan or China.)  The Serbs adore Russia and Ukraine is split: part of Ukraine wants warmer relations with Russia and the other parts loathes it.  I can also bring in the opinions of the Abkhaz, the Ossetians, the Georgians, the Chechens, the Ingush, and Kyrygz and the rest from Central Asia.
But let's move beyond lists of Russian-Foreign relationships.  Russia remains a center of concern for much of the West.  The 2008 war with Georgia drew widespread alarm (from the Baltic States, Poland, and Ukraine) and condemnation.  Don't be fooled, Russia is modernizing its military (the recently flight for the Sukhoi PAK FA T-50, the development of the S-500 missile system, the introduction of the T-90 tank, etc), and it aims to not be the embarrassing mess of the 1990s.  Beyond the military, Russia is trying to regain its sphere of influence (by using grants and loans) and push against US and EU intervention in the near abroad.  But, the biggest thing about Russia; what just gets those in the EU the most, is that it is an energy superpower with a heavy hand.
What is surprising is that Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany, has had her nose hilt-deep in Putin's ass.  Or maybe it's not very surprising at all.  Germany, like most of Europe, needs Russia's oil and gas, and Russia is happy to oblige.  It's not that Germany admires Russia, or holds it in any esteem, it just wants easy access to reliable hydrocarbons.  Russia, however, is anything but reliable.  It seems like every winter they get into a tussle with Ukraine over unpaid bills, prices, and accusations of syphoning, and they threaten to turn off the taps, which they have done.  This actually does little to affect most of western Europe, since that gas goes through Belarus and Poland.  It will affect them even less when the Nord Stream pipeline is completed.  There are moves, such as the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey pipeline to curb reliance on Russia, but it's not seen as much.
Beyond the common spats with Ukraine that disrupt supplies, Europe (consequentially NATO and its allies) has a bigger problems.  They can't really criticize or confront Russia very much, for fear that Russia might use energy as a weapon.  Thus, both the EU and NATO are usually bound with one hand behind their backs when dealing with Russia.  Russia throws a tantrum over something, and the rest of Europe is scrambling to think of how to calm it down without angering it too much.  If there was a serious mixup with Russia (politically or militarily), Europe would face a catastrophic shortage of natural gas, and Russia knows it.

Enter Poland and shale gas.  Optimistic forecasts of Poland's new shale gas wealth are extremely high.  Some are even calling Poland the next Qatar (don't pull your pricks out of your pants just yet, lads.  Let's see how much gas there really is in that rock before your start rolling on your rubbers to party.)  Interest in Poland's potential gas wealth has exploded, with big-time US energy companies signing on.  Many an economist and energy trader suffered whiplash from the speed at which they turned their heads to Poland.
Shale gas is becoming quite lucrative in the US, with many companies 'perfecting' its mining.  New wells are being drilled constantly, often without thought of environmental impact.  It's been said that many families in rural Pennsylvania (a top shale gas-producing state) can light their tap water on fire.  It's likely that there will be greater restrictions and discretion in the permit process than currently in the States, which might slow development down a bit, but also might protect the inhabitants and environment a bit more.
But what does massive gas deposits mean for Poland?  Will Poland turn into one of those hydrocarbon-reliant wonderlands where no one pays taxes, the government builds massive phallic buildings, and everyone is rolling around in obscene amounts of petrodollars while getting laid?  Who knows (don't try to predict what will happen; you won't be right.)  The point is, is that Poland stands a lot to gain both economically and geopolitically.  Poland now gets about 70% of its gas from Russia and if Poland could produce enough gas to meet domestic demand (which would inevitably rise), it would be a amazing.  If Poland could export gas to the conveniently-close-and-in-the-European-Union Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Lithuania, and Austria, it would a miracle.  Many of these countries are overwhelmingly reliant on Russian gas, and most of them think of Russia as kind of a dick.
The role of Poland in European politics would be immensely bolstered.  Poland would be seen as a stable, reasonable ally that was worth protecting.  Its strategic importance to the EU (and NATO) would expand greatly.  Not only would it be a frontier state, it would be an important source of energy for its allies (this translates into: Europe and NATO would do a shitload to protect Poland from any sort of aggression (just like the US did with Kuwait) because it would be in their (Europe's and NATO's) strategic and economic interest.)  Some might say that Russia would also sight its sights more keenly on Poland, since Poland would be seen as a key state to Europe's security (from an energy standpoint.)  A worry and criticism from Poland, is that the US did not do enough to shield Georgia from Russia; they worried that the US would do the same to them (this is one of the reasons spurring Poland to accept the missile silos, which were downgraded to patriot missiles.  They felt that if Russia was to invade (and the Poles don't put it past the Russians) that the US would only come to their aid because American troops and interests would be directly threatened.)
Poland, meanwhile, is hedging its bets and is in the process of signing a deal with Russia that will last until 2045.  Until the real results can start flowing from Poland's gas fields, Poland and the EU will still be suckling on the metaphoric gas-nipple of Mother Russia.

Currently Poland's top gas producer.

Angela Merkel.  Her boner will be second only to Tusk's in the event that Poland exports gas.

Little Vacay

I haven't been writing so much these past few weeks. I will be back with all sorts of news, from the floods, to elections, to the drastic drop in the Zloty (and everything in between.)

Spring is here and the days are marked by passing clouds and showers and some heated sun. The garden on the balcony is starting to take off. People still tote coats around, but even the nights can be sometimes balmy.

Oh, and the US just parked a PATRIOT missile battery in northern Poland. The Ruskies are pissed.

Plane Crash: After Effects: Conspiracy Theories

Today the First Lady of Poland's body returned to Warsaw to lay next to her husband at the Presidential Palace.

But, let's get on to fingering someone to blame for this giant fiasco. The victims are not even in the ground yet and the idiot-mills have been churning out the most ludicrous ideas about the whole plane crash. Some say the Russians did it, the Germans, Civic Platform, or even Law and Justice themselves. All of these people get too far ahead of themselves to really ask the question: Cui bono? Who benefits?

When looking at the case: no one. The Russians don't really benefit: their air control system and airplanes come out looking like junk, and it brings Katyn to full media attention, which Russia must then address. OK, the Polish archivist and the last president of the Polish Government in Exile are killed, but that really isn't a boon for Russia. The world already knew of Katyn and the Government in Exile was dissolved twenty years ago. It's not like the situation with Kremlin critic, Alexander Litvinenko, who was causing all sorts of problems for the Kremlin. I don't really understand how the Germans would benefit at all (there was something like PO was getting cozy with them or something.) As for the political parties, ugh, it's just too stupid to contemplate.

Why listen to facts and reasoning when it is easier to pull something straight out of your ass? It's like those moronic 9/11 Truthers and the even lamer 'Birthers'. People are not necessarily interested in the truth, which is often incomplete, they care more about a convenient 'complete' version of events. In fact, arguing with such people is an exercise in futility, since they can always revert to calling everything a coverup.

What conspiracy theorists fail to do is a benefit-risk analysis. As in, what are the potential rewards to be reaped, and what are the risks if the whole thing goes sour? What would the problems for Russia be if it came to be known that Russia had killed a foreign head of state and the head of the military? Well, probably not something the Kremlin could afford just yet. Certainly a great deal of foreign investment (which Russia is needing and craving) would be pulled out of the country, as happened in the 2008 Georgian War. (In fact, the whole war rather hurt Russia because of the economic warfare that the West did, i.e. pulling out investment.) There's no party or entity that would be able to risk this much for what little benefit there is to be reaped. Plus, I'm sure that whatever aim someone had to have all these people killed could have been reached by a far simpler, less lethal method (one that would be less titillating, but more effective.)

Sikorski! Everyone yells back to Sikorski (who died in a plane crash near Gibraltar.) Sikorski was also a potential threat to the Soviet Union with his aims of Polish nationalism (so were all the leaders of the Warsaw Uprising, who were also murdered by the Soviets.) Kaczynski was not exactly enemy number one for the Russians or a real threat (if he was Ukrainian, I'd give this scenario a little more weight.)

Even the deaths of those who were in the military (notably, all the heads) is no great win for a foreign power. Poland is still backed by NATO and all the generals' deputies have now stepped into their shoes. Poland learned its lesson with a 2008 plane crash that killed a lot of generals from the air force.

The investigation is far from being concluded, and the contents of the plane's data and voice recorders have not been released. Still, international aerospace experts have weighed in on the matter and proposed several reasonable causes (or mix thereof): pilot error, plane malfunction, weather factors, ground control error. The fact is that I do not know why that plane crashed; no one does just yet. We can all surmise and make guesses, but most people know nothing of airplanes and piloting, but they have seen a film or two with some convoluted plot with a sinister enemy pulling all the strings.

Plane Crash: After Effects: The Results

It is undeniable that Saturday's plane crash robbed Poland part of the cream of the Polish Government and military. Regardless of your opinions of those who died (and if you consider them the 'cream'), there were many high-ranking casualties in all areas of the Government. The numero uno of them all, Lech Kaczynski, will be laid to rest this coming Saturday. His body will lie in State on Tuesday for two days.

Krakowskie Przedmiescie has been turned into a pedestrian zone.

Yesterday, Sunday, the body of Kaczynski came back to Poland. A motorcade wound its way through the city and ended at the Presidential Palace. Personally, I missed the entire thing, not aware what was happening. I did hear the two blasts of sirens, one marking when the plane crashed, and the other at noon for a moment of silence. The remainders of the other victims are apparently still in Russia, awaiting identification before they are returned.

A side street off Krakowskie Przedmiescie. A mourner lights and leaves a candle in the growing collection.

Poles have been noting the actions of Russia, particularly their prime minister and de facto tsar, Vladimir Putin. Putin declared himself head of the investigation into the incident, while sock puppet Medvedev, made a passionate speech. Russia declared a nation day of mourning and told relatives of the deceased that they could come to Moscow to identify the bodies and take them home, with Russia footing the bill.

This all comes at a crucial time for Russia, which has been rocked with a sour economy and protests, which have been violently quashed. The turmoil in Kyrgyzstan has been blamed on the Russian-back opposition. Recent bombings in Moscow leave questions to whether Russia can provide safety to things such as the 2014 Sochi Olympics, plus they bring unwanted attention on the horrific situation that still festers in the Caucus Region (something Russia would like to sweep under the rug if it could.) Russia stands to polish (pun intended) its image abroad as conciliatory, supportive, and sympathetic. I even heard that Russian state TV played the movie Katyn unedited.

Remembrance candles burning in front of the Presidential Palace.

The investigation has not been concluded, but it seems that pilot error was the main reason. Many people question why so many VIPs were flying in one plane. The Polish Government had wanted to buy more newer planes for official use, but budget concerns made them think otherwise. It would not look good (especially in an election year) to buy a fleet of new planes while the rest of the world is in a recession. People still might remember Obama nixing a fleet of twenty-eight new helicopters (price tag: $11 billion) as something analogous.

Poland itself has been trying to trash its Soviet-built aircraft. It recently acquired a whole fleet of F-16s, with hopes of buying the JSF F-35 as well. LOT flies an almost-exclusive Boeing fleet (with some ATR and Embraer planes) and is the European launch customer for the Boeing 787 Dreamliner. It makes a point to advertise its Boeing fleet, and for a while boasted about the 787 on the front page of its website.

A scout offers water to the crowd.

A scout takes a mourner's candle to place it with the others.

Part of the city of light in front of the Presidential Palace.

Foreign TV personalities (the nearest one was French.)

Well, what I did head downtown yesterday, I was simply awestruck. It wasn't just the crush of people in front of the Presidential Palace or the seas of candles that were growing like some sort of amoeba or colony (or even that there were more roses than Valentine's Day); it was the sellers of such products. Well, there are always a LOT of flower sellers in Poland. They are at almost every subway stop. BUT, I didn't even know that Warsaw had this amount of candles on hand. They are all the church candles (you see them particularly in cemeteries) enclosed in red glass. Hawkers have pallets and pallets of them (plus, where did all the Polish flags come from? Who has this amount of paraphernalia on hand? Probably kept in storage in anticipation for the Euro Cup.)

Krakowskit Przedmiescie has been closed off to traffic (aside from government cars and police/emergency vehicles.) Crowds of people stream in both directions. The thickness of the crowd leads to some pushiness (I can still feel the hand of a dzialka on my left should blade has he essentially pushed me through the throng.) Even though there's a great mass of people, it's not as loud as one would think (I'm used to gatherings greater than forty people shouting "Yankees Suck!") Most people converse in hushed tones, leaving the crying of babies to ring clear.

In front of the Presidential Palace, the crowd was pressed tight. Some small tents covered TV crews and international media personalities. Bouquets were lashed to light poles, and a few ever-growing pools of candles dotted the streets. Directly in front of the Palace, tens of thousands of candles flickered. When a gust of breeze blew across them, it hit the crowd with a sooty warmth. Scouts kept the crowd a bay; when people brought up candles or flowers, they handed them to the scouts, who would place them amongst the ocean of light. Every so often, a scout would walk past handing out free water. Sometimes a scout would come with a trash bag and pick up all the extinguished candles, but this hardly made a dent in the great collection. Journalists and photographers held free reign and went about, unmolested by authorities, in search of epic and solemn shots. Those amongst the crowds touted their own high-priced equipment, snapping photos at every instance.

At Pilsudski Square, more oceans of candles lay around half-masted flags, the giant cross, and the Tomb of Unknown Soldier. The largest one was at the cross, where a few old women led the surrounding crowd in prayer, reciting Hail Marys (I think they were doing the whole rosary.)

Some babci lead the crowd in prayer.

Poles gather and reflect near the forest of candles.

The Poles expect a large amount of foreign heads of state and dignitaries to come to Warsaw for Lech Kaczynski's funeral. They even explicitly hoped for Obama's arrival (personally, I think just Biden will show up, but we'll see.)

Plane Crash: After Effects: The First Few Hours

With the recent tragedy that has fallen upon Poland, the outpouring has been immediate. In downtown Warsaw, Polish flags are waving everywhere, each adorned with a black strip of mourning. In front of the Presidential Palace on Krakowskie Przedmiescie, a huge crowd of several thousand showed up. Piles of flowers and a small forest of candles flicker in the cold spring air.

The flags of Poland, the EU, and NATO fly at half-mast.

Flags of mourning fly everywhere.

…even from a sex shop.

I walked around to catch the general mood of the Poles in mourning. The people are quiet, barely talking above a whisper to themselves; some say prayers, others mutter to each other; a few brave souls sing hymns aloud, creating a ghostly sound as their voices waft over the crowd. The flower and candle sellers are doing a brisk business. Many people bring bouquets of tulips or roses to plant near the lions that guard the gates at the presidential palace. Others bring wreaths, scarves, or maybe just a single rose. As I said before, the mood was quiet and glum, but the amount of cameras is absolutely astonishing. Every other person is touting a big expensive SLR and snapping away with abandon; babci wave around their tiny Exilims, teens hold up their camera phones, and TV men shoulder massive TV cameras. A small armada of dish-adorned vans were parked in a neat row, with TV personalities grooming themselves before mobile spotlights.

I am curious as to whom these TV personalities are.

Guards march to-and-fro from the palace, while two scouts stand watch.

Some scouts near the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier before going to pay their respects.

I was approached by an Israeli journalist. He and his team were in Poland to cover the March of the Living on Monday. The March is a walk from Auschwitz to Birkenau and attracts thousands of Jews to Poland each year. We talked a bit, (he was very nice) and he was musing if it would lead to war (I said that it wouldn't; he didn't seem to seriously think that war was possible.) He brought up the 2006 invasion of Lebanon over two captured IDF soldiers; I pointed out that Poland wouldn't be dealing with Hezbollah, but rather Russia. A couple of others of his team came by and we chatted a bit before they left for food. I asked them what they thought of the Poles and they seemed to think the world of them, but they did note that they were 'cold' in their mourning.

The reporter from Israel (Haifa, to be exact, I believe he said.)

The crowd was swelling to enormous proportions (thousands and thousands.) A truck unloaded porta-potties (Toi Toi) while police cordoned off a small passageway into the palace. Cars with heavily tinted windows rolled by every-so-often, and the police habitually came by to push the crowd back. The police were polite and respectful (not angry or aggressive, as I've sometimes have seen.) No one was causing a ruckus.

Unloading toilets.

The crowd numbers in the thousands.

I shouldered up into the crowd, cameras were snapping off all around, and waited while the police opened up a passageway through the crowd. A few smartly-dressed soldiers marched in and out; every so often a car would drive either in or out of the palace; and finally, three men walked up to the crowd. The men drew reporters like a magnet drawing metal shavings; in an instant, they were swarmed with journalists shoving microphones near them and all the while sending off a storm of camera flashes. The man in the middle spoke a few words (none that I could hear) then headed back to the Palace with his menagerie of journalists in tow. A steady stream of press folk went to the palace entrance (under colonnade), where I presume there was an address of some sort. I didn't think quickly enough to whip out my Canon and try to make it in, but stood at the entrance a little longer. Regular people were allowed in on the far side, and exited on my side.

The media circus swarms around the Government men (I don't recognize them) for a brief announcement. (This sequence of photos takes place in about twenty seconds, to give you an idea.)

The supermarkets were packed. Crowds of people, much more than are usually there on Saturdays, are stocking up in case all the stores are closed on Sunday. A one-week period of mourning has been called, with a two-minute moment of silence at noon on Sunday.

Horns (sounding like air raid sirens) blasted for two minutes on Sunday at the time of the crash, and again at noon. They were to mark the passing of the President of Rzeczpospolita Polska and the nearly-100 other souls.

Some nuns (whom I had seen earlier at the palace) pray at the cross near the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, while a candle seller hawks his wares on Krakowskie Przedmiescie.

The forest of candles and flowers.