The Chechens

As apt as I am in trying to keep up with local (i.e. Polish) news, I ran across some headlines that Chechen exiles would be hosting a conference right outside of Warsaw.

For those of you who don't remember or don't care, Chechnya is a republic in the Northern Caucuses.  It is internationally recognized as sovereign Russian territory, but has been locked in struggle against Russia for independence.  The First Chechen War, fought between 1994 and 1996, ended with nominal Chechen independence; although, it wasn't recognized internationally.  Chechnya, ravaged by war and strife, began a downward spiral into tribal warfare and banditry that made a hard life even more miserable.  Everything that was not destroyed in the first war was leveled in the second.  The re-invaded Chechnya became the shithole that nobody knew or cared about.  Imagine a place a little bit bigger than Connecticut bearing the brunt of a full Russian invasion.  Since then, things have cooled down slightly, but there is still a smoldering violence, and a bitterly oppressive government that is run more like a mafia than an actual mandate from the masses.  This is all boiled down for easy digestion; there's more to the story, but this is the gist of it.
My interest in Chechnya was piqued when I read Arkady Babchenko's One Soldier's War.  It's a harrowing account of Babchenko's two tours of duty (one in the first war as a conscript, one in the second as a professional soldier) in Chechnya.  Seeing the war through a soldier of the Russian Federation's eyes was a bit moving and a bit disturbing.  His recounts of his suffering at the hands of his own comrades are stomach-churning.  Babchenko later went on to become a journalist and now writes for the independent Novaya Gazeta, a newspaper funded in part by Mikhail Gorbachev.
Babchenko's fellow journalist, Anna Politkovskaya, wrote several books on Chechnya, one of which I read, A Small Corner of Hell: Dispatches From Chechnya.  One Small Corner of Hell really exposed the horrors inflicted upon Chechnya and the Chechen people.  It condemned the Chechen resistance as not looking out for the actual needs of the people, but saved the most condemnation for the Russian military and government for their heinous and willful crimes.  Politkovskaya was a victim of death threats and intimidation, which eventually led to her assassination (as of yet, no one has been convicted.)  Her familiarity with the Chechens and their cause led her to be a negotiator in the Moscow Theater Siege, which didn't end well.  One of her memorable quotes is an angry young terrorist saying, "You live quite well here!  We live in the forest.  But you'll see!"
So, when thinking of a ravaged place seeded with unexploded ordinance, corrupt officials, bandits, environmental harm, and a brewing pot for jihad, think of Chechnya.  It's the place you're not going to go to vacation even if it's all-expenses-paid.  Better spots include: Pakistan's Swat Valley, Pripyat, Monterrey (Mexico), Rio's City of God, and just about anywhere else.

Anyway, the Polish police arrested Akhmed Zakayev in Warsaw the other day.  Zakayev is wanted on an international arrest warrant.  The Poles are letting the courts decide what to do with him for now, i.e. send him to Russia (which Russia is demanding), or let him go.  It's doubtful that he would meet his doom in Russia, but he most likely would be sent to prison for the rest of his life.  Poland did extradite the alleged Israeli spy to Germany to face charges, but I'm not too sure how this one is going to play out.
One interesting thing, so I've heard, is that Russia alleges that Polish GROM MANPADS (Man-Portable Anti-Air Defense Systems) were found in Chechnya.  Poland denies this and claims Russia was just being a dick and placed them there themselves, which I wouldn't put past Russia.

The Problem With Russia

It's no secret that not a lot of people like the Russians.  The Poles despise them, the rest of Europe doesn't trust them, and the North Americans view them with a mixture of distrust and misunderstanding.  Places like India and Armenia have warm relations with Russia (party because Armenia is surrounded by enemies and India needs an arms supplier that is not an ally of either Pakistan or China.)  The Serbs adore Russia and Ukraine is split: part of Ukraine wants warmer relations with Russia and the other parts loathes it.  I can also bring in the opinions of the Abkhaz, the Ossetians, the Georgians, the Chechens, the Ingush, and Kyrygz and the rest from Central Asia.
But let's move beyond lists of Russian-Foreign relationships.  Russia remains a center of concern for much of the West.  The 2008 war with Georgia drew widespread alarm (from the Baltic States, Poland, and Ukraine) and condemnation.  Don't be fooled, Russia is modernizing its military (the recently flight for the Sukhoi PAK FA T-50, the development of the S-500 missile system, the introduction of the T-90 tank, etc), and it aims to not be the embarrassing mess of the 1990s.  Beyond the military, Russia is trying to regain its sphere of influence (by using grants and loans) and push against US and EU intervention in the near abroad.  But, the biggest thing about Russia; what just gets those in the EU the most, is that it is an energy superpower with a heavy hand.
What is surprising is that Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany, has had her nose hilt-deep in Putin's ass.  Or maybe it's not very surprising at all.  Germany, like most of Europe, needs Russia's oil and gas, and Russia is happy to oblige.  It's not that Germany admires Russia, or holds it in any esteem, it just wants easy access to reliable hydrocarbons.  Russia, however, is anything but reliable.  It seems like every winter they get into a tussle with Ukraine over unpaid bills, prices, and accusations of syphoning, and they threaten to turn off the taps, which they have done.  This actually does little to affect most of western Europe, since that gas goes through Belarus and Poland.  It will affect them even less when the Nord Stream pipeline is completed.  There are moves, such as the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey pipeline to curb reliance on Russia, but it's not seen as much.
Beyond the common spats with Ukraine that disrupt supplies, Europe (consequentially NATO and its allies) has a bigger problems.  They can't really criticize or confront Russia very much, for fear that Russia might use energy as a weapon.  Thus, both the EU and NATO are usually bound with one hand behind their backs when dealing with Russia.  Russia throws a tantrum over something, and the rest of Europe is scrambling to think of how to calm it down without angering it too much.  If there was a serious mixup with Russia (politically or militarily), Europe would face a catastrophic shortage of natural gas, and Russia knows it.

Enter Poland and shale gas.  Optimistic forecasts of Poland's new shale gas wealth are extremely high.  Some are even calling Poland the next Qatar (don't pull your pricks out of your pants just yet, lads.  Let's see how much gas there really is in that rock before your start rolling on your rubbers to party.)  Interest in Poland's potential gas wealth has exploded, with big-time US energy companies signing on.  Many an economist and energy trader suffered whiplash from the speed at which they turned their heads to Poland.
Shale gas is becoming quite lucrative in the US, with many companies 'perfecting' its mining.  New wells are being drilled constantly, often without thought of environmental impact.  It's been said that many families in rural Pennsylvania (a top shale gas-producing state) can light their tap water on fire.  It's likely that there will be greater restrictions and discretion in the permit process than currently in the States, which might slow development down a bit, but also might protect the inhabitants and environment a bit more.
But what does massive gas deposits mean for Poland?  Will Poland turn into one of those hydrocarbon-reliant wonderlands where no one pays taxes, the government builds massive phallic buildings, and everyone is rolling around in obscene amounts of petrodollars while getting laid?  Who knows (don't try to predict what will happen; you won't be right.)  The point is, is that Poland stands a lot to gain both economically and geopolitically.  Poland now gets about 70% of its gas from Russia and if Poland could produce enough gas to meet domestic demand (which would inevitably rise), it would be a amazing.  If Poland could export gas to the conveniently-close-and-in-the-European-Union Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Lithuania, and Austria, it would a miracle.  Many of these countries are overwhelmingly reliant on Russian gas, and most of them think of Russia as kind of a dick.
The role of Poland in European politics would be immensely bolstered.  Poland would be seen as a stable, reasonable ally that was worth protecting.  Its strategic importance to the EU (and NATO) would expand greatly.  Not only would it be a frontier state, it would be an important source of energy for its allies (this translates into: Europe and NATO would do a shitload to protect Poland from any sort of aggression (just like the US did with Kuwait) because it would be in their (Europe's and NATO's) strategic and economic interest.)  Some might say that Russia would also sight its sights more keenly on Poland, since Poland would be seen as a key state to Europe's security (from an energy standpoint.)  A worry and criticism from Poland, is that the US did not do enough to shield Georgia from Russia; they worried that the US would do the same to them (this is one of the reasons spurring Poland to accept the missile silos, which were downgraded to patriot missiles.  They felt that if Russia was to invade (and the Poles don't put it past the Russians) that the US would only come to their aid because American troops and interests would be directly threatened.)
Poland, meanwhile, is hedging its bets and is in the process of signing a deal with Russia that will last until 2045.  Until the real results can start flowing from Poland's gas fields, Poland and the EU will still be suckling on the metaphoric gas-nipple of Mother Russia.

Currently Poland's top gas producer.

Angela Merkel.  Her boner will be second only to Tusk's in the event that Poland exports gas.

The Military Year

2010 has been a banner year for Poland, and Warsaw in general. They broke new ground on the MoMA; Chopin is getting a year's-worth of celebration for his 200th birthday; the 600th anniversary of the Battle of Grunwald; the 66th anniversary of the Warsaw Uprising; and now, the 90th anniversary of the Miracle of the Vistula.
For those of you who did not know what the Miracle of the Vistula was: it was a decisive Polish victory over the Soviet forces in the Polish-Soviet War in 1920.  On an interesting note:  Charles De Gaulle served with distinction in this war (not too many non-Poles, non-De Gaulle fans know this.)  Anyway, it was a huge victory for the Poles and their legendary leader, Jozef Pilsudski.  It was kind of like the Polish Gettysburg, but only kind of.  The greatly defeated Soviets soon sued for peace and the borders of Poland (which, at that time included Lwow and Wilno) remained intact until the German-Soviet invasion of 1939. The battle remains an important date in Polish history, except it happened in a war more forgotten than the Korean War.  During the Communist times of Soviet hegemony, the Polish-Soviet War was covered over and hushed up much like the Warsaw Uprising (ask Norman Davies; he know firsthand of the matter.)
The war is a point of Polish pride in that it was the first major Polish military success in a couple of hundred years (and remains so) and that they defeated a much larger enemy to preserve their independence and freedom.  The war, along with the Winter War (Russo-Finnish War), showed how terrible the Red Army really was.  For those of you who would wonder why Germany would ever invade the Soviet Union, much smaller, much less powerful countries were able to embarrass the Soviets militarily.
Today, there was a commemoration of the battle at, most apt, Plac Pilsudskiego.  There was also a big military fair in the Saxon Park (the Polish military's outreach to the public.)  I stood around for some of the ceremony, involving ranks upon ranks of uniformed soldiers.  Unfortunately, they blocked off Pilsudski Square, so the spectators couldn't really be close (except the VIPs.)  The crowd wasn't that large, and the day was broiling, so I snapped a few film pictures (I don't have a digital camera right now.)  So, I didn't stick around for the speeches, military drills, overtures, or displays, and I don't have any pictures beyond some black-and-white film pictures I took on a Zenit-E (an old Soviet model.)