Bialo-Czerwoni (The Red and Whites)

Immediately before, during, and after the Euro 2012, there was a sudden uptick in folks (mostly women) dressed with white tops and red bottoms.  This, of course, is the way the Polish flag is.  White and red also happen to be good summer colors and are attractive.

Anyway, it seemed that every second person I saw was wearing red and white (bottom and top, respectively), so I tried to do a little photo essay incognito (read: taking photos on my phone's crappy camera.  Even the settings were put done.  It was kind of creepy like, but don't blame me, I was doing it for reporting.)

Chilling in the subway.  Sporting the "Polish flag" look.

Another lass rocking the red and white.

I was pretending to text in the blazing sun while taking this one.

Hey!  Guys wear it too!

The whole red and white thing has kind of died down now, but it's still a very popular combination.

And again, I know these pictures just look kind of creepy, but I was trying to capture the trend.  We'll see if there's more to come.

Travelin' Blues

A recent trip took me to Warsaw's Chopin Airport.  It was the height of the Euro 2012 championship, so I expected it to be mobbed, with lines snaking this way and that, and an extra layer of security checks just to make the whole thing that much hellish.  I was greeted by a near-empty terminal.  Waiting in line to check in?  Nope.  Going through security?  A breeze.  I actually arrived to the airport way to early, and had to burn off some extra time wandering around the building wondering where everyone was.

LOT E170s and E190s with a special Euro 2012 livery on their winglets and fuselages.

Getting those visitors off on the right foot.

In both terminals, it was kind of eerie the way that there were so few people.  I have never seen them this empty, except maybe when I had some 6:00 AM flight, and I got to the airport at 4:30.
I had heard about how some 500,000 fans were supposed to come through Warsaw (or something like that, I dunno').  Tourism was supposed to pick up, partly because of the weak zloty, and partly because of the beautification of the country.  Well, I saw no immediate effects.  We're just about in the middle of the tourist season, and they're just trickling in.  I chalk it up to the problems with Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and France (oh yes, they too have problems), but I don't have reams of proof to throw at you.  But, there have been several articles noting the downturn in travel within the Euro Zone.

No lines or crowds here.

There are a few people milling around, but everything is just about quiet.

By the way, the traffic in Warsaw isn't too bad, even on game days.

Euro 2012: Poland-Russia

As we all know by now the game ended in a 1-1 draw.  It was also the site of massive protests.

Watching the game atop the metro station. 

The riot police lining up in case of trouble.

At the metro entrance of the strefa kibica, trouble has started and security is starting to crack down.

Inside the strefa kibica most everyone is calm and watching the game.

The police clear the area outside the entrance.

Burning the Russian flag. 

No need for porta-potties!  The wall serves just well enough.

The line clearing the street. 

The palace all lit up.

Cheering from atop the metro.

This guy don't give a fuck.  He's picking up crushed cans for cash.

Ale Jerozolimskie full of people.

Euro 2012: The Cost

As the UEFA Euro 2012 tournament opens and soccer madness grips everyone in patriotic fervor, there are already calls and questions on whether the games were actually worth it to Poland and Ukraine.  (By the way, the games opened yesterday with a 1-1 tie between Poland and Greece.  Russia stomped the Czechs (think 1968 style) 4-1.)  Several articles—a couple are here and here—bring up the enormous cost of the games as well as citing precedents, namely Greece with the 2004 Athens Olympics, but also the Euro 2004 Portugal games.
First off, cost: it's widely claimed that Poland spent $25 billion dollars getting ready for the games.  That's a staggering amount, no doubt, and one should look a little more closely at it.  The real cost was in infrastructure improvements, ($15 billion on roads alone), whilst the cost of the four stadiums (construction and renovation) amounts to something around $1.5 billion.  There are also other costs, such as: security (not just providing security, but also the cost of arrests and trials.  Notably, inmates were moved from host cities to jails in other cities to make room for expected arrests.  Many judges were put on standby to handle the increase in prosecutions as well), building the strefa kibica (fan zone), clean up, etc.  But these are paltry sums compared to the overall total.  Poland spent more than Ukraine, but then again, it did have access to EU money.
The claim that Poland spent $25 billion preparing is ludicrous and wrong.  Much of that money is EU money that was flowed in Poland to help rebuild its decaying infrastructure.  All the projects were already earmarked before Poland even made its bid for the games.  Now, the tournament probably increased the priority of certain projects—the case in point being the semi-notorious A2 Berlin-Warsaw highway.  It gained notoriety for: A) Having the Chinese contractor be kicked out because it failed to pay its sub-contractors.  B) Being opened when still incomplete for the Euro 2012, and will have to be closed afterwards to finish it up (an extra layer of pavement is needed on a good-sized portion).  But the A2 highway wasn't built for the games, it was going to be built anyway, and probably on the same schedule.  The second metro line has as much to do with the Euro 2012 as do the new trams in Lodz, Krakow, and just about everywhere else (cities that are not hosting the games, but renovated their tram lines).  It has not been noticed much, but Poland has also been using EU funds to build small, rural roads (this will be covered in a future post).
That's not to say the games did cause infrastructure and other projects to be done.  There are, but not what everyone thinks.  The real cost that can be directly attributed to the games was building the stadiums, and it's quite shocking to see the main contractor file for bankruptcy protection.  There was a big push to beautify the cities before the games came, and it shows.  Renovations the rail stations, finished just in time, have turned the dank platforms and corridors into hallways of light.  Warszawa Centralna's transformation has eased travel through there and really updated it as a gateway into the city.  Speaking of gateways, it may have been planned long ago, but the recent opening of the SKM line to the airport is sure to be a boon for travelers.
Infrastructure has received much of the attention, but the stadiums themselves have attracted their fair share of criticism.  Most barbs are aimed at the National Stadium in Warsaw.  The high cost of the structure, at almost 2 billion zlotys, has dropped some jaws.  Critics say that it'll turn into a white elephant, a costly building to maintain and will be under utilized.  The Polish National team doesn't have a long schedule to ensure that paying fans will be packing the stands every week, but events have already been scheduled.  From concerts to the Polish Bowl (I think I'll attend that), the building is a prime venue.  It has to compete will the Sluzewiec racetrack (hippodrome) and the Bemowo airport for such events like concerts and music festivals.  Other stadiums have taken the fashionable thing and sold their naming rights to offset the cost of construction and operation.  (Note:  Ironically, when the Polish National Team recently played Andorra, they played at the Pepsi Arena, home Legia Warszawa, and not in the National Stadium, which was under UEFA control.)

Now that we have spent so much time harping on the cost, let's look at the gains.  Poland is betting on two things to recoup the cost of the games: an increase in tourism (not just the short-term spike, but also long term), and an increase in investment.  Tackling the second hope first, Poland is trying to show that it can execute big projects on time, plus show off its shiny new roads and rails.  An influx of foreign capital will cause the ever-growing forest of stationary cranes standing above halted construction projects to finally move once more.  The first hope is for an increase of tourism, on which Europe is increasingly becoming reliant (think Greece and Portugal).  Poland wants to show that they're not all racist anti-semites, regardless of what the BBC aired.  The increase of tourists during the games is a given, and they'll spend big, buying all sorts of bric-a-brac and crap in the form of Euro 2012 souvenirs.  As for the future, Poland hasn't showcased its crown jewels (read: Krakow), here, but the hosting cities are known to be beautiful, Wroclaw and Gdansk in particular.

While the games are costly, the cost isn't so high as is reported.  Most of the work done was financed with EU help, but there were also smaller contributions, such as the EEA and Norway grants.  The great part of the infrastructure improvements were already set forth and would have happened anyway.  What we're seeing is a developed economy rapidly modernize, closing the gap in deficiencies, and increasing its debt.  This happens all the time with developing economies, and is now going on in China (all eyes are on them).  The question is whether the EU money will continue to flow, especially as other countries are one-by-one seeking bailouts.  The spigot could be turned off and Poland could be left with a mess of half-finished projects and join the sad graveyard of countries who were too ambitious in their hopes to host major international competitions.
What will the future be and what will the games leave as their legacy?  I don't know and no one does, but they have served a purpose to strengthen national pride and open Poland to the rest of Europe.  Whether the gamble that they'll increase tourism and investment will pay off, that's something we'll just have to wait and see.

Obligatory Post About "Koko Euro Spoko"

As the Euro2012 bears down on us—the opening match merely a day away—I feel compelled to mention the Euro2012 anthem for Poland, "Koko Euro Spoko"by Jarzebina.  Translating to something like Bawk (or cluck) Euro Cool (Note: koko is the Polish word for the sound a chicken makes), the song was voted the winner of "Hit Bialo-Czerwonych" (Hit of the Red-Whites) in a live concert.  The song itself seems to be a semi-disco polo song with lyrics about the Euro2012 tournament, of course playing to nationalist feelings (it's cheering on the Polish National Team.)  It has all the expected imagery: red and white, eagles, balls flying high.  The song immediately led to a mass facepalming from just about everyone who wasn't at the concert voting for it.

Those are traditional folk outfits.  They're not dressed as nuns.  But also fucking check out the guitarists rock out on this one.

Many feel that it's an enormous embarrassment for Poland to choose a cheesy song like this: but they're really missing the point.  The worst part of the song is the lyrics, which are pretty lame; however, most foreigners won't understand the lyrics.  The same works in reverse when trying to tell non-Poles about how great Pan Tadeusz is (the plot is super-lame; one reads it for the language, which is lost upon non-Polish speakers.)
Not all are detractors though.  Some find the lyrics and tune pretty catchy (I myself have annoyed more than one co-worker with my incessant singing of "Ciesza sie Polacy!  Cieszy Ukrainia!"  (Note:  I'm not endorsing this song or admitting that it's good, it merely entered into my rotation of songs to sing out loud for the Euro2012 duration.)
The last I heard, they were not going to perform this for the opening match.

Awwww shit, son!  It's the remix!

This is not the first folk song inspired by soccer.  Maryla Rodowicz also performed for the 1974 World Cup, in which Poland placed third.

All I can say is that I can't wait to see if this is submitted for the Eurovision contest.  Won't that bring down the house.

The Outlook for Poland for the Next Two Years

2010 has been a wild year, especially in the financial and business world.  In the beginning, the markets didn't know what to do with Greece and their pesky financial problems.  The PIIGS shook the world's faith in the EU and the euro; China surpassed Japan in terms of GDP; the US fears of a double-dip recession are ongoing; and the stock market doesn't know what the hell to do.  Most EU states have implement almost-draconian austerity measures to curb debt.  Meanwhile, Sarkozy tries to tweak France's retirement age a little (upping it from sixty to sixty-two) and that causes them to go on strike yet again.  Poland, all the while, has been growing and growing.  Its infrastructure projects and renovations have exploded into a rush to complete everything before 2012.

2012 seems to be a magic year.  Besides the "Mayan prediction" and superstitions, there's a super sun storm that might disrupt electronics on earth; there's the EuroCup 2012; the 2012 Olympics in London; and 2012 may be the year that when investors get cold feet over Poland's debt and stop buying its bonds, forcing major austerity measures.

How it works:

Right now, Poland's economy is growing (let's say, 4%.)  With a rise in its GDP, there is also a rise in its debt, this is natural.  EU money (as well as Norwegian money) is pouring into Poland in enormous amounts.  The rub is when the debt grows faster than economy does (let's say, 5%.)  With Poland's economy growing, Poland looks to be a good place to invest money (buying bonds.  In a month or two, Poland will hike rates, which will make it more attractive to buy Polish bonds.)  When more money is invested, the economy grows, which leads to more investment, which leads to further growth and so on.  This can all come to a head when investors start to doubt Poland's ability to pay back its debt (bonds).  They will pull their money out of Poland, which will cause the economy to shrink, which will cause further doubt about the Polish bonds, which will cause more investment to be pulled out, etc.  Pretty much what happened with Greece.

Now, a little birdy told me (someone who is intimate with the situation) warned that Poland has about two more years until the party is over and the government has to enact difficult-to-swallow reforms.  I should warn that the amount of time is purely circumspect and no one really knows; it could be two years, eighteen months, three years, or any amount of time in the near future.  It's like waiting for a small bomb to go off, not knowing how long the timer is.

Right now, Poland is standing in the middle of the tracks, watching the train rush towards it.  Solving the problem is not so much about knowing what to do—most people know what must be done—but about having the political will to actually do it.  Poland needs reforms in government spending, and it needs it soon.  The recent election might have given PO a stronger grip on power, but the surprisingly strong show for Kaczynski sent a message.  The cutbacks in spending that are needed will not be coming any time soon: PO can't risk it politically to make such unpopular decisions.

Members in the financial community have consulted with ministers of Poland, sharing their pessimistic outlook.  The ministers (Boni in particular.  Boni is the fourth-most powerful minister in Poland) agreed; however, told them point blank that the government cannot risk such a politically dangerous program.  Instead, Poland has resorted to accounting tricks to hide and cover its debt (not unlike Greece.)  These tricks serve as a temporary solution and will make the blowup all the more painful.  The tricks do, however, allow the politicians to make claims and be bullish about the economy and government spending.  So, Poland will stand in front on the train until either the last minute, or until the train runs them over.

When austerity measures come (and they will come), it probably won't be as bad as in Greece.  A few things to look for:

1)  The VAT will rise, but gradually.  It'll be 1% at a time in increments.

2)  The retirement age will rise.  Right now, it stands at sixty years for women and sixty-five years for men.  Expect at least two-year rises in each.  Poland's aging (and shrinking) population will have to work longer and expect less benefits when they retire.

3)  Public salaries will be frozen at the least, cut at the most.  Public-sector jobs will have their raises and benefits trimmed.  Also, layoffs probably will happen.

4)  The construction boom will wind down.  Poland's construction boom, financed with a lot of EU money, might wind down.  That's not to say that it won't go on, just at a slower pace.

5)  An increase in fees.  Fees, fees, fees.  They raise money.  Expect them all over the place, and increases in the current ones.

6)  If Poland hasn't joined the euro area by then, the zloty will be printed en masse and a de-valuation will happen.  When you need to pay debt and you exert control over your own currency: print money.

Sound bleak and depressing?  Kind of is, but it might be necessary.  The thing is, the Polish government has mastered the art of public relations.  Everything is often overstated and in an optimistic light.  Everything from the economic outlook, to foreign relations, to the shale gas that I often yap about.  The government isn't about to admit this coming problem just yet, and will probably deny it until the problem has already broken.  Call it a black swan in the coming.
The crisis probably won't be as bad as Greece's, and these reforms will be able to handle it, but it pays to be prepared.  Poland does have a few weapons to combat it and can also lean on fellow EU members for support.

I'll end this with a big  WHO KNOWS?  Why?  Because a lot can happen in this amount of time.  Poland's shale gas might be just as big as they say it (but probably won't be producing for quite a while.) Poland's economy might outpace its debt; Polish politicians might force the bitter medicine and take reforms; there might be some big global or regional event that will help Poland avoid all these problems. But, all the same, I'll remain bearish in the long-term, but bullish in the near-term.

Eurovision

Last night was the great Eurovision Song Contest, the annual performance mega-competition between the states of Europe. It is often a huge point of pride for countries who send their darling pop stars (or unknowns) to compete and win. You see, Europe doesn't fight wars anymore; they do battle on the stage and in the sports arenas (Euro Cup, etc.) These contests can be heavily politicized. Eurovision recently changed their voting rules so politics and voting blocs wouldn't get in the way. These are the wars of the future: wars of talent; to see who can hold the best melody; score the most goals; fly the highest, fastest, farthest; who can write the most annoying tune to get stuck in your head.

Well, it's an international event (one I'm not too keen on, but whatever) so many people just watch it because of the tradition. This year's winner was nineteen-year-old Lena (Meyer-Landrut is her last name, but the press knows her as Lena.) A Romanian friend of mine was most proud that the Romanian warrior placed third.

Poland's Champion has his moment to shine.

Deutschland über alles!

Polish Soccer Fans: Bunch of Damn Hooligans or an Elusive Species?

As the Polish preparations for the Euro 2012 precede from truly shambolic to little-more-than-pathetic (compared to Ukraine, they seem on the ball and ahead of schedule) I come to wonder if Poland is really, truly jazzed about it.

My unscientific, broadly assumptive survey consists of me talking to my students. I interrogate them about their feelings about the Euro 2012, Widzew vs. Legia, and soccer in general. Coming into Poland, I presumed that they would be nuts about soccer. Technically, they are. They have fans that riot and scream and yell, but the rub is, is that I haven't met any of them. I have had class after class, student after student, and all of them claim to apathetic to soccer in any way shape or form. Most couldn't care less about the Euro 2012; they think it'll be an embarrassment for Poland and a hassle with all those pesky tourists clogging up the roads and subway and spending their money. Their apathy is appalling. Fans of soccer they may not be, but they need to look around them and see the massive investment in Poland's infrastructure. Plus, this is the chance for Poland to take center stage (Ukraine will most likely be limping behind, partially in Poland's shadow in the limelight.) Already, the UEFA has threatened Ukraine that Poland might have to host the bulk of the matches (Poland has confirmed they are ready, willing, and able) if Ukraine doesn't pick up the pace. The National Stadium is being transformed from a crumbling pit that hosts a flea market to a big muddy pit to a beautiful new stadium.

The Poles put up more of a fight against each other than against invading Germans and Soviets. (Oh, that's right. I went there.)

To say that I don't know any fans is a lie. A low-down, dirty lie. I actually know one, and he's a huge fan of Widzew Lodz, and an even bigger fan of AC Milan. He gave me a Widzew Lodz scarf, which I proudly displayed in my room. I was warned to never wear it in Warsaw or else I'd "get my ass beat."

I was later informed that Poland has a "league" of fighting armies or whatever. A hundred half-naked fans of one soccer team meets in a field with a hundred equally-half-naked fans of a rival soccer team, and they proceed to do violence upon each other. Sounds fun. This truly brings hooliganism too a new level.

To be honest, with all this talk of hooligans, and the silence of apathy, the most raucous display of fandom was on a bus in Kraków: a few youths chanted "Jazda! Jazda! Jazda! Biala Gwiazda!" Nothing too out of the way of fans in New England chanting, "Yankees Suck!" on the subway, at concerts, at Red Sox vs. KC Royals games, inaugurations, and Ted Kennedy's funeral.