Plane Crash: After Effects: Lying in State

The decision to lay the Kaczynscy to rest in the Wawel has created a minor uproar in Poland. The Wawel is the castle compound overlooking the Kraków Old Town and the Vistula. It's the traditional burying place for Poland's Kings and national heroes. Pilsudski, Kosciuszko, and Mickiewicz lie in the Wawel's crypt. The Poles lobbied the Vatican for John Paul II's heart to be entombed in the Wawel, but were unsuccessful. So, one could understand why the Poles hold this place rather sacred, and have serious reserves to who is buried there. Many Poles say that Kaczynski (whose approval rating hovered around twenty percent when he died) may have been important to Poland, but not that important.

On Facebook, there has been an explosion of anti-burial-in-Wawel groups. I see that many have turned from mourning to anger and indignation. After all, does PiS think that Kaczynski was as important to Poland than Poland's nobility? Well, actually, Kaczynski probably deserves to be buried there more than some of the shitty kings do (the ones whose crummy reigns and ineptitude allowed Poland to shrink from the largest, most powerful state in Europe to a non-existent entity.) I'm not saying Kaczynski was a hero, saint, martyr, or anything, I'm just saying that they should probably be uprooting some sarcophagi before staging protests over whether or not he should be laid down there. To be perfectly frank, I honestly don't care that much (but then again, I'm not Polish, so my opinion on this matter is moot. (The bold text is on purpose, to emphasize.)) But I do understand the huge split in opinion and the feelings-running-high; it's a controversial move.

While this whole debate is raging on, the Kaczynscy are lying in state at the Presidential Palace. They are expected to be joined by Ryszard Kaczorowski, the last President of Poland in Exile. The Kaczynscy (plural of Kaczynski/a) will be buried on Sunday with many world leaders in attendance. I stated in an earlier post that I wouldn't have expected Obama to come, but apparently he will.

Yesterday, I sauntered over there, hoping to get in line and pay my respects. There was a small crowd in front of the castle (which has two huge screens running a live feed of the coffins.) The President's death has led to a deluge of nuns in public (there were always a lot in Warsaw, but I have noticed an increase of late.) They're everywhere! Mostly they walk around in small groups, but now, it seems, entire convents are hitting the streets in roving gangs.

I was searching to get in line, sifting through the crowd to find how I could gain entrance to the palace. It turns out that visitors are lumped into groups, which are let in one at a time to view to coffins.

The forest of candles and crowd in front of the palace.

I began searching how to get into one of these groups, and started walking down Krakowskie Przedmiescie. As I walked, I was confronted with how enormous the line really was. There was a point where the segmented groups of visitors became one unbroken queue to enter the palace. At first I estimated I'd have to wait an hour in line; when I neared Plac Zamkowy (about a quarter of a mile away) I stretched that up to three hours; when I reached Plac Zamkowy, I figured on five-plus hours at least. By then, the line started snaking around and doubling in on itself (several times) and I couldn't even see where the end was. It was so confusing, with lines going in every sort of direction. I don't even think some of the lines were even connected into the main one, but rather were just lines of people going nowhere (how they started, is anyone's guess. It seems that a long line at the ice cream place might have been mistaken for the line to get into the palace and so being started filling behind it.) I decided to trash my plans to see the President and his wife lie in state. As I walked back down Krakowski Przedmiescie, a light rain fell. As mushrooms are apt to do in the fertile loam of the forest, thousands of umbrellas blossomed almost in unison.

The line in goes all the way down the street.

Umbrellas in the sprinkling.

This 'crowd' of people, is actually one huge, twisted, curvy line.

A group near the front of the line awaits entry.

Along with the recently flooding of nuns to Warsaw's streets, an uptick in handkerchief-wearing scouts has also happened. The Presidential Palace is teeming with adorable youths wearing a variety of uniforms. Their uniforms range from the tradition 'Boy Scout' to the naval blues to some that look rather militaristic. The scouts light and place candles, remove the ones that are burned out, direct traffic and help control the crow, hand out water, or just stand guard. Their volunteerism has allowed the city of Warsaw to save thousands of zlotys by not having to pay overtime for extra police officers or hiring security guards.

A scout directs the foot traffic on Krakowskie Przedmiescie. We must respect her authoratay!

Scouts take cover.

Plane Crash: After Effects: Conspiracy Theories

Today the First Lady of Poland's body returned to Warsaw to lay next to her husband at the Presidential Palace.

But, let's get on to fingering someone to blame for this giant fiasco. The victims are not even in the ground yet and the idiot-mills have been churning out the most ludicrous ideas about the whole plane crash. Some say the Russians did it, the Germans, Civic Platform, or even Law and Justice themselves. All of these people get too far ahead of themselves to really ask the question: Cui bono? Who benefits?

When looking at the case: no one. The Russians don't really benefit: their air control system and airplanes come out looking like junk, and it brings Katyn to full media attention, which Russia must then address. OK, the Polish archivist and the last president of the Polish Government in Exile are killed, but that really isn't a boon for Russia. The world already knew of Katyn and the Government in Exile was dissolved twenty years ago. It's not like the situation with Kremlin critic, Alexander Litvinenko, who was causing all sorts of problems for the Kremlin. I don't really understand how the Germans would benefit at all (there was something like PO was getting cozy with them or something.) As for the political parties, ugh, it's just too stupid to contemplate.

Why listen to facts and reasoning when it is easier to pull something straight out of your ass? It's like those moronic 9/11 Truthers and the even lamer 'Birthers'. People are not necessarily interested in the truth, which is often incomplete, they care more about a convenient 'complete' version of events. In fact, arguing with such people is an exercise in futility, since they can always revert to calling everything a coverup.

What conspiracy theorists fail to do is a benefit-risk analysis. As in, what are the potential rewards to be reaped, and what are the risks if the whole thing goes sour? What would the problems for Russia be if it came to be known that Russia had killed a foreign head of state and the head of the military? Well, probably not something the Kremlin could afford just yet. Certainly a great deal of foreign investment (which Russia is needing and craving) would be pulled out of the country, as happened in the 2008 Georgian War. (In fact, the whole war rather hurt Russia because of the economic warfare that the West did, i.e. pulling out investment.) There's no party or entity that would be able to risk this much for what little benefit there is to be reaped. Plus, I'm sure that whatever aim someone had to have all these people killed could have been reached by a far simpler, less lethal method (one that would be less titillating, but more effective.)

Sikorski! Everyone yells back to Sikorski (who died in a plane crash near Gibraltar.) Sikorski was also a potential threat to the Soviet Union with his aims of Polish nationalism (so were all the leaders of the Warsaw Uprising, who were also murdered by the Soviets.) Kaczynski was not exactly enemy number one for the Russians or a real threat (if he was Ukrainian, I'd give this scenario a little more weight.)

Even the deaths of those who were in the military (notably, all the heads) is no great win for a foreign power. Poland is still backed by NATO and all the generals' deputies have now stepped into their shoes. Poland learned its lesson with a 2008 plane crash that killed a lot of generals from the air force.

The investigation is far from being concluded, and the contents of the plane's data and voice recorders have not been released. Still, international aerospace experts have weighed in on the matter and proposed several reasonable causes (or mix thereof): pilot error, plane malfunction, weather factors, ground control error. The fact is that I do not know why that plane crashed; no one does just yet. We can all surmise and make guesses, but most people know nothing of airplanes and piloting, but they have seen a film or two with some convoluted plot with a sinister enemy pulling all the strings.

Plane Crash: After Effects: The First Few Hours

With the recent tragedy that has fallen upon Poland, the outpouring has been immediate. In downtown Warsaw, Polish flags are waving everywhere, each adorned with a black strip of mourning. In front of the Presidential Palace on Krakowskie Przedmiescie, a huge crowd of several thousand showed up. Piles of flowers and a small forest of candles flicker in the cold spring air.

The flags of Poland, the EU, and NATO fly at half-mast.

Flags of mourning fly everywhere.

…even from a sex shop.

I walked around to catch the general mood of the Poles in mourning. The people are quiet, barely talking above a whisper to themselves; some say prayers, others mutter to each other; a few brave souls sing hymns aloud, creating a ghostly sound as their voices waft over the crowd. The flower and candle sellers are doing a brisk business. Many people bring bouquets of tulips or roses to plant near the lions that guard the gates at the presidential palace. Others bring wreaths, scarves, or maybe just a single rose. As I said before, the mood was quiet and glum, but the amount of cameras is absolutely astonishing. Every other person is touting a big expensive SLR and snapping away with abandon; babci wave around their tiny Exilims, teens hold up their camera phones, and TV men shoulder massive TV cameras. A small armada of dish-adorned vans were parked in a neat row, with TV personalities grooming themselves before mobile spotlights.

I am curious as to whom these TV personalities are.

Guards march to-and-fro from the palace, while two scouts stand watch.

Some scouts near the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier before going to pay their respects.

I was approached by an Israeli journalist. He and his team were in Poland to cover the March of the Living on Monday. The March is a walk from Auschwitz to Birkenau and attracts thousands of Jews to Poland each year. We talked a bit, (he was very nice) and he was musing if it would lead to war (I said that it wouldn't; he didn't seem to seriously think that war was possible.) He brought up the 2006 invasion of Lebanon over two captured IDF soldiers; I pointed out that Poland wouldn't be dealing with Hezbollah, but rather Russia. A couple of others of his team came by and we chatted a bit before they left for food. I asked them what they thought of the Poles and they seemed to think the world of them, but they did note that they were 'cold' in their mourning.

The reporter from Israel (Haifa, to be exact, I believe he said.)

The crowd was swelling to enormous proportions (thousands and thousands.) A truck unloaded porta-potties (Toi Toi) while police cordoned off a small passageway into the palace. Cars with heavily tinted windows rolled by every-so-often, and the police habitually came by to push the crowd back. The police were polite and respectful (not angry or aggressive, as I've sometimes have seen.) No one was causing a ruckus.

Unloading toilets.

The crowd numbers in the thousands.

I shouldered up into the crowd, cameras were snapping off all around, and waited while the police opened up a passageway through the crowd. A few smartly-dressed soldiers marched in and out; every so often a car would drive either in or out of the palace; and finally, three men walked up to the crowd. The men drew reporters like a magnet drawing metal shavings; in an instant, they were swarmed with journalists shoving microphones near them and all the while sending off a storm of camera flashes. The man in the middle spoke a few words (none that I could hear) then headed back to the Palace with his menagerie of journalists in tow. A steady stream of press folk went to the palace entrance (under colonnade), where I presume there was an address of some sort. I didn't think quickly enough to whip out my Canon and try to make it in, but stood at the entrance a little longer. Regular people were allowed in on the far side, and exited on my side.

The media circus swarms around the Government men (I don't recognize them) for a brief announcement. (This sequence of photos takes place in about twenty seconds, to give you an idea.)

The supermarkets were packed. Crowds of people, much more than are usually there on Saturdays, are stocking up in case all the stores are closed on Sunday. A one-week period of mourning has been called, with a two-minute moment of silence at noon on Sunday.

Horns (sounding like air raid sirens) blasted for two minutes on Sunday at the time of the crash, and again at noon. They were to mark the passing of the President of Rzeczpospolita Polska and the nearly-100 other souls.

Some nuns (whom I had seen earlier at the palace) pray at the cross near the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, while a candle seller hawks his wares on Krakowskie Przedmiescie.

The forest of candles and flowers.

Plane Crash

The Katyn Anniversary just got a bit more tragic.

I just received a text message mentioning a "plane catastrophe." Not knowing what it was, I did a preliminary sweep of some news aggregates, and discovered that the President of Poland, Lech Kaczynski, and an entire Polish delegation may have perished in a plane crash near Smolensk.

They were flying to Smolensk to honor the 70th anniversary of the Katyn massacre.

It seems that there were a number of VIPs, including the Kaczynskis (husband and wife), the governor of the central bank, the last President of Poland in Exile (Ryszard Kaczorowski), and the army chief of staff. The Tu-154 (another victory for Russian aerospace) carrying the President and his entourage crashed while approaching to land at Smolensk Airport. It seems the plane hit the tops of the trees while trying to land in foggy weather and disintegrated. Preliminary reports said that 130 people could have perished in the crash out of 132 passengers, but hopes for any survivors are slim. Recent reports put the toll at 97, with there being no survivors.

The reaction in Poland is sure to be one of mourning and probably a bit of anger. The people haven't forgotten Sikorski's crash near Gibraltar, and I bet a great deal of them will think Russia had a hand in this as well. It's strange, since I have a few students who despised Kaczynski, but nationalist feelings will overwhelm any sense of hard feelings toward him, and the anger will most likely be directed at Russia. Meanwhile, I'm not too sure how this tragedy will affect the everyday operations of the country (will it be like when JFK was shot?)