The Outlook for Poland for the Next Two Years

2010 has been a wild year, especially in the financial and business world.  In the beginning, the markets didn't know what to do with Greece and their pesky financial problems.  The PIIGS shook the world's faith in the EU and the euro; China surpassed Japan in terms of GDP; the US fears of a double-dip recession are ongoing; and the stock market doesn't know what the hell to do.  Most EU states have implement almost-draconian austerity measures to curb debt.  Meanwhile, Sarkozy tries to tweak France's retirement age a little (upping it from sixty to sixty-two) and that causes them to go on strike yet again.  Poland, all the while, has been growing and growing.  Its infrastructure projects and renovations have exploded into a rush to complete everything before 2012.

2012 seems to be a magic year.  Besides the "Mayan prediction" and superstitions, there's a super sun storm that might disrupt electronics on earth; there's the EuroCup 2012; the 2012 Olympics in London; and 2012 may be the year that when investors get cold feet over Poland's debt and stop buying its bonds, forcing major austerity measures.

How it works:

Right now, Poland's economy is growing (let's say, 4%.)  With a rise in its GDP, there is also a rise in its debt, this is natural.  EU money (as well as Norwegian money) is pouring into Poland in enormous amounts.  The rub is when the debt grows faster than economy does (let's say, 5%.)  With Poland's economy growing, Poland looks to be a good place to invest money (buying bonds.  In a month or two, Poland will hike rates, which will make it more attractive to buy Polish bonds.)  When more money is invested, the economy grows, which leads to more investment, which leads to further growth and so on.  This can all come to a head when investors start to doubt Poland's ability to pay back its debt (bonds).  They will pull their money out of Poland, which will cause the economy to shrink, which will cause further doubt about the Polish bonds, which will cause more investment to be pulled out, etc.  Pretty much what happened with Greece.

Now, a little birdy told me (someone who is intimate with the situation) warned that Poland has about two more years until the party is over and the government has to enact difficult-to-swallow reforms.  I should warn that the amount of time is purely circumspect and no one really knows; it could be two years, eighteen months, three years, or any amount of time in the near future.  It's like waiting for a small bomb to go off, not knowing how long the timer is.

Right now, Poland is standing in the middle of the tracks, watching the train rush towards it.  Solving the problem is not so much about knowing what to do—most people know what must be done—but about having the political will to actually do it.  Poland needs reforms in government spending, and it needs it soon.  The recent election might have given PO a stronger grip on power, but the surprisingly strong show for Kaczynski sent a message.  The cutbacks in spending that are needed will not be coming any time soon: PO can't risk it politically to make such unpopular decisions.

Members in the financial community have consulted with ministers of Poland, sharing their pessimistic outlook.  The ministers (Boni in particular.  Boni is the fourth-most powerful minister in Poland) agreed; however, told them point blank that the government cannot risk such a politically dangerous program.  Instead, Poland has resorted to accounting tricks to hide and cover its debt (not unlike Greece.)  These tricks serve as a temporary solution and will make the blowup all the more painful.  The tricks do, however, allow the politicians to make claims and be bullish about the economy and government spending.  So, Poland will stand in front on the train until either the last minute, or until the train runs them over.

When austerity measures come (and they will come), it probably won't be as bad as in Greece.  A few things to look for:

1)  The VAT will rise, but gradually.  It'll be 1% at a time in increments.

2)  The retirement age will rise.  Right now, it stands at sixty years for women and sixty-five years for men.  Expect at least two-year rises in each.  Poland's aging (and shrinking) population will have to work longer and expect less benefits when they retire.

3)  Public salaries will be frozen at the least, cut at the most.  Public-sector jobs will have their raises and benefits trimmed.  Also, layoffs probably will happen.

4)  The construction boom will wind down.  Poland's construction boom, financed with a lot of EU money, might wind down.  That's not to say that it won't go on, just at a slower pace.

5)  An increase in fees.  Fees, fees, fees.  They raise money.  Expect them all over the place, and increases in the current ones.

6)  If Poland hasn't joined the euro area by then, the zloty will be printed en masse and a de-valuation will happen.  When you need to pay debt and you exert control over your own currency: print money.

Sound bleak and depressing?  Kind of is, but it might be necessary.  The thing is, the Polish government has mastered the art of public relations.  Everything is often overstated and in an optimistic light.  Everything from the economic outlook, to foreign relations, to the shale gas that I often yap about.  The government isn't about to admit this coming problem just yet, and will probably deny it until the problem has already broken.  Call it a black swan in the coming.
The crisis probably won't be as bad as Greece's, and these reforms will be able to handle it, but it pays to be prepared.  Poland does have a few weapons to combat it and can also lean on fellow EU members for support.

I'll end this with a big  WHO KNOWS?  Why?  Because a lot can happen in this amount of time.  Poland's shale gas might be just as big as they say it (but probably won't be producing for quite a while.) Poland's economy might outpace its debt; Polish politicians might force the bitter medicine and take reforms; there might be some big global or regional event that will help Poland avoid all these problems. But, all the same, I'll remain bearish in the long-term, but bullish in the near-term.

Eurovision

Last night was the great Eurovision Song Contest, the annual performance mega-competition between the states of Europe. It is often a huge point of pride for countries who send their darling pop stars (or unknowns) to compete and win. You see, Europe doesn't fight wars anymore; they do battle on the stage and in the sports arenas (Euro Cup, etc.) These contests can be heavily politicized. Eurovision recently changed their voting rules so politics and voting blocs wouldn't get in the way. These are the wars of the future: wars of talent; to see who can hold the best melody; score the most goals; fly the highest, fastest, farthest; who can write the most annoying tune to get stuck in your head.

Well, it's an international event (one I'm not too keen on, but whatever) so many people just watch it because of the tradition. This year's winner was nineteen-year-old Lena (Meyer-Landrut is her last name, but the press knows her as Lena.) A Romanian friend of mine was most proud that the Romanian warrior placed third.

Poland's Champion has his moment to shine.

Deutschland über alles!

Tail-Whip

The recent, and rapid, decline of both the Euro and the Zloty against the US Dollar has left me a little unnerved. I expected the Euro to drop according to Greece's woes (as well as those of the entire so-called PIIGS Bloc) but was a little shocked to see how the Zloty fell as well. It's a common misconception that the Zloty is pegged to the Euro, much like the Lithuanian Litas, but isn't. This misconception, as well as the thought that the EU's economies are so tightly integrated, creates a psuedo-pegging.

See, the Zloty isn't pegged to any currency and its governing body is the NBP; however, the Polish economy is so heavily reliant on those in the Euro Area. Since Poland's economy relies so much on countries that use the Euro, it is necessary to take these economies into account when valuing the Zloty. As such, the Zloty fluctuates wildly against the US Dollar, mimicking—in a greater degree—the Euro. When the Euro rises against the dollar, the Zloty will appreciate more; when the Euro falls, the Zloty will fall even further.

All of this is fine and dandy, but it creates a problem for me: I get paid in Zloty, but I generally think of myself earning in dollars (my debts are in dollars.) Summer, 2008, was a very good time when the exchange rate was near 2:1. The Zloty had been falling against the dollar this spring (2.8:1) but has recently dropped to levels I haven't seen since the summer of last year. The Euro has dropped to about 1.2:1 and is expected to reach parity. So, this is generally good news for Europe (especially Airbus, which sells its planes in dollars, but reports earnings in Euros.)

Good for Poland? You bet. Poland is looking ripe for investment. The weaker Zloty makes Polish goods and services cheaper in international trade. Many countries are in a "race to the bottom" to devalue their currency (China has held this as national policy and it's pissing the US off.) The US was hoping to make the greenback crap its pants and lose so much value that American goods would become the most viable choice when buying big-ticket items (planes, guns, machinery.) Unfortunately, Greece had to screw everything up.

Oh, Euro

There is a big focus and scrutiny of the Euro these days. Many analysts are wondering if the decade-old mega-currency can actually survive this economic downturn. Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and any other countries ready to step forward with their massive debts, have all cast a pall over their common currency. This leaves many questions for Poland, which is currently not in the Eurozone.

The Euro: The next world currency? Or resigned to the dustbin of economic history?

Poland, which was aiming to go over to the Euro in 2012 (just in time for the Euro Cup) probably won't any time soon. I can't blame them. It makes economic sense; many credit the Zloty for helping Poland be the only EU country not to head into recession.

See, the weakness of the Zloty makes Polish goods cheaper to foreign buyers, even for other EU countries (which use the Euro.) While a struggling country, like Ireland, has seen its costs of production rise with the Euro's strength, Poland's remain relatively low. It's the same strategy that the Chinese are using. Companies have responded by shifting a great deal of production to Poland (Dell, for one, moved its massive computer plant from Limerick to Lodz.) Poland and the Czech Republic recently overtook Italy for the amount of cars produced. The exchange rate of the Euro-Zloty can also have a effect on tourism. With the rise of the Euro against the dollar, the Americans have found that it's becoming more expensive to visit the typical places like France, Spain, and Italy. Tours to Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe (including Russia) have risen over 100% since the recession began. Medical tourism is also a small cash cow; many Germans pass over the border for dentist visits and such (don't expect many Brits to do that though; they just come for the strippers.)

A weak Zloty is not all good news though, it makes things like foreign imports (energy especially) more expensive. But, with all this production shifting to Poland anyway, that might just deaden the blow; that, and the fact that the Poles have accepted that foreign stuff is going to cost an arm and a leg.

Talking to people on the street, one may get the sense that they aren't really looking forward to the Euro. Many believe it will drive prices up (see: Cappuccino Effect) and that wages won't follow. Not all are against it, the Government is pro-Euro as are some businessmen. The cost of intra-European trade would decrease and become stable and predictable. Ask a Pole on the street what the greatest benefit the Euro would bring, and the answer would be, "I wouldn't have to change money when going to Ireland/Germany/Italy."